McKibbon, B., (2025), Here Comes the Sun, W.W. Norton

Bill McKibbon is one of the most high profiled critics of our world’s climate degeneration, and has written more than 20 books on the topic, including his ground breaking The End of Nature, perhaps the first book that set out the problem of excessive CO₂ emissions/global warming/climate change. In this book, he seems to see a path forward, however. Much of this involves the rapid advances in technologies that deal with climate-related products. There may be a shift from burning fossil fuels to generate energy towards relying on energy from the sun. The cost of producing energy from the sun has now dropped below the cost of fossil fuels.

Even in China, this shift seems profound. In May 2025, came news that China has used 5% less coal to produce electricity in the first quarter of the year than it had in the year before. In California, 100% of electric energy from non-fossil fuel sources can now be produced and the state now uses 25% less natural gas to produce power than it did a year earlier.

As the author points out, solar energy is available everywhere, unlike oil or gas which are concentrated in relatively few places. In the chapter on fossil fuel burning, the author discusses this in more detail. He stresses that sun, wind and hydropower are complimentary, promising a new floor of electricity.

Almost half of the emissions in the US can be traced to the use of electricity in homes – heating/cooling, washing/drying, car usage.

The gas industry has a long history of aggressive advertising. But even though the burning of natural gas leads to roughly only half the CO₂ emissions than the burning of coal, there are still significant emissions from natural gas. With pipeline leakages so common, natural gas can be “dirtier” than coal.

Big oil is doing almost anything to stay in the fossil fuel burning business. Its oil/gas revenues are listed as worth trillions of USD on those firms’ books. The systematic measurement of CO₂ emission started in 1958. This has led to a shift in focus when it comes to oil companies' advertising, with more focus on algae, and a more or less painless transition away from burning fossil fuel. But is this realistic? This type of advertising, according to McKibbon, may have the primary effect of delaying fossil fuel phase-out, thus in effect giving the oil companies some additional years to reap high profits.

As already noted, technological progress seems remarkable, with AI likely to accelerate even more despite resistance from politicians such as Trump. Batter development progress appears particularly significant with the added possibility to store electric energy on a large scale, to tap into locations where there is no sun or wind. Lithium-ion batteries are getting better and better, as well as cheaper and cheaper! The author points out that in 2025, the world will add 80 gigawatts of grid-scale storage, an eight-fold increase from 2021.

Shifts in the usage of electricity may also have to do with revising regulation, such as in housing, for instance. For instance, in 2024 in Germany, apartment dwellers began to hang solar panels from their balconies. In France, every large parking lot must now have solar-based lighting. Norway’s biggest sports stadium now has a roof that can be opened or closed, driven by solar panels, and so on.

Fossil fuels and coal are quickly becoming the alternative energy. But can we fully afford this shift? Current investment patterns indicate that building new alternative sources for providing electric energy seems to confirm that is affordable. We are aggressively building terawatt after terawatt of solar and wind power!

Speed is also important, so as to arrest the slow pattern of climate degeneration that might come with a perhaps too slow transition from fossil fuel. Leading academicians, such as Nobel Prize winner Dr. Nordhuus at Yale, are proponents of “shifting slow”. Once investment has been made to build windmills or install solar panels, then the sun and the wind deliver energy for free. Important proponents of this shift in energy-economics point out that energy is likely to become even cheaper. The marginal cost of electricity production by photovoltaic panels and wind turbines is approximately zero. To produce ongoing value from fossil-fueled electricity plants requires the infusion of more assets. Capital is being used on an ongoing basis.

Oil companies still seem to be investing in new oil/gas exploration. A common argument from such firms seems to be that these forms of investments can provide higher returns than if investing in oil/wind. Share price and shareholder confidence seem to call for a continuation of this focus on fossil fuel.

Some 80% of the people on our earth live in countries that depend on the import of oil/gas. The shift towards solar may be particularly significant for many of these countries, perhaps above all, many African countries. New investments in building electricity transmission grids will be needed. Return on investments here currently seems be running around 5-6%, but the returns should be at least approximately 10-12% to speed up such transitions.

Even though China is still building coal-powered electricity plants, the levels of CO₂ emission in China is quickly dropping. Beijing is no longer on the top list of cities with the worst air quality - these are now in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

The Inflation Reduction Act came into effect in 2023 in the US, with around USD 20 billion in clean energy projects being announced. This momentum is likely to be significantly slowed down during Trump’s tenure. However, it is unlikely that these initiatives will become fully nulled out. However, the US momentum is likely to slow, in stark contrast to China.

The author now turns to the mining sector, to investigate how mining outputs could fare as a consequence of the shift to solar power. According to Bloomberg, the likelihood of more mining will be considerably less, but with some variations – less copper (less transmission construction), more lithium rare earth (more batteries). Recycling shall play an increased role, say, when it comes to lithium.

The shift from fossil fuel to solar power will impact many, but can it be done in a fair way? Clearly those working in the oil/gas sector, broadly defined, will lose out. Therefore, it is no wonder that the oil/gas industry may fight this shift. To spread misinformation is still inappropriate as it is unfair to the rest of us! Members of some unions in the oil/gas industry are asking to be supported in new jobs in other industries, which facilitates the exit from oil/gas.

It is not only a matter of addressing the people problem arising from the demise of the oil/gas industry. To keep a reasonable momentum, there is also a need to change regulations. Today’s approval processes are often slow and politically dominated, for example, when it comes to constructing new power transmission lines.

The author speculates that a new world shall largely be shaped by how well changes in both regulation and approval processes be delineated. Speed will be important here. To this effect, the author points out how fast and seemingly effortless the shift from Russian oil/gas to primarily Norwegian sources took place in Europe, in the wake of the war on Ukraine.

This important book concludes with a plea from the author: our civilization would be well-advised to deploy energy from the sun as quickly as we can. The world seems to have been given one last chance to tackle the climate problem caused by excessive CO₂ emissions. Increases in global warming are likely to continue. This may stop short of such new levels that could make much of our earth uninhabitable.