Introduction
This book offers hope when it comes to how we might cope with the following three critical problems, facing us all in this world:
· Global health emergencies (such as the one we experienced with COVID 19).
· Transformative climate change (global warming; CO2 emission).
· The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution.
The author explains that the coming crises likely to face us from the above might actually drive many of us, to an extent, politicians and normal citizens alike, so that we might be able to come up with workable solutions. Serious crises, felt by so many, may actually catalyze us to positive actions!
Before delving into the key arguments in this book, let me share with you a few words about the author, Dr. Ian Bremmer. Boston-born, and with a Ph.D. from Stanford, he is the President of Eurasia Group, a leading consulting and research firm dealing with major global socio-political issues. He also teaches at Columbia University.
According to Dr. Bremmer, we are facing two major collision courses which shall “shape” the way we might cope with the above three emerging major world-wide crises. The two collisions are “us versus them”, i.e., the increasingly dysfunctional and polarized America, and “at home and abroad”, i.e., the rivalry between America and China. While the first might be seen as quite obvious to most of us, and may be relatively easy to understand, the second may require some further elaboration. There seem to be three major reasons why China appears to be “drifting away” from America: China’s reluctance to open up more of its market, its readiness to subsidize many of its companies, often quite heavily indeed, and its disrespect for rules protecting intellectual property, at times even manifesting itself as outright stealing. But there is also hope - above all, the interrelationship between China and America when it comes to trade is strong, indeed much more so than the case of US-Soviet relationships during the Cold War. So, there are opportunities, even though the rising trends toward more Chinese nationalism do indeed lead to concerns.
Let us now move onto discussing the first major dilemma facing the world, namely pandemic politics. Generally, the worldwide experience in coping with COVID 19 was not good – lack of resolute early handling in China during the outbreak period, lack of global coordination of vaccination, and so on. What can we learn, so as to be better prepared to handle the next pandemics certain to come, perhaps even more infectious than COVD 19? Dr. Bremmer offers 6 areas of action – invest significantly now, so that we all (politicians, and “ordinary people”) know what to do; exchange information, above all based on a more systematic global approach to testing; share burdens more equally (a good example might be the so-called COVAX project that brings together governments and vaccine manufacturers to ensure more equal access to vaccines worldwide); and more effective learning from COVID 19 (testing, restrictions on mobility, use of marks, …).
Let us now change focus, to the second major source of crisis that seemingly faces us, namely climate change. What is driving global warming, and excessive emission of so-called climate-impacting gases, above all CO2? Dr. Bremmer discusses 6 factors: water – too much and too little(!); competition (resistance by many countries to impose restrictions and thereby impeding their abilities to catch up with more wealthy economies); migration (so-called “climate refugees” due to rising sea levels, excessive heat, and so on); unrest and conflict; “climate apartheid” (the richer parts of the world simply ignoring the poorer ones); and dangers of geo-engineering (such as climate manipulation, “cloud whitening” and so on). Dr. Bremmer points out several courses of action for coping with climate emergency: setting rules, joint R&D, schemes for “managing” carbon, planting more trees and better forest protection, above all. But who pays for all of this? A “green” Marshall Plan might be needed. National approaches to this global problem may simply not suffice!
Disruptive technologies represent the third major source of global conflict. A “digital divide” appears to exist, and a race, above all between the US and China, to be ahead, as witnessed for instance when it came to the so-called controversy over 5G (fifth generation) in mobile telephony, which offers much faster and more powerful features than earlier types of networks.
There are indeed new risks emerging: autonomous weaponry, cyber-war technology, and drone-based technologies above all. Perhaps a world data organization might be called for?
The concluding chapter of the book starts with a quote from Louis Pasteur, which is highly appropriate: “Change favors only the prepared mind”. So, what are the major “pillars” of such “preparation”? We may revert to more effective ways of cooperation within already existing organizations, such as United Nations, the World Trade Organization, NATO, and the European Union. Dr. Bremmer has suggested a four-part agenda for cooperation here:
· A global COVAX
· A binding agreement on reduction of carbon emissions
· A green Marshall Plan
· A world data organization
Large corporations, with their leaders, may have their own definite views when it comes to how to cope with these factors. Fundamentally, there may be only three outcome scenarios:
· The state reigns supreme, and so-called national champions win.
· Corporations capture the state, and globalizations wins.
· The state fades and techno-utopians win.
While none of these scenarios probably offer “ideal” outcomes, the first one does seem to provide at least some degree of stability. More effective cooperation seems to be the key. A positive vision would be called for so as to shape the world order. Fear alone is not enough, i.e., what might come about from the severe crisis facing mankind. The challenges ahead are plentiful, but the author is a guarded optimist!