Book Review: Applebaum, A., (2024), Autocracy Inc., Penguin

This short but important book deals with how dictators come to power, how they operate to maintain control, and how they often cooperate across national borders to gain further influence. Regrettably, the number of dictators, autocrats as the author labels them, seems to be on the increase. The threat to the democratically run world is increasing. The author analyzes the key operating characteristics of autocrats that seem to be prevalent, and she offers specific advice on effectively coping with autocrats.

The author, Anne Applebaum, is a leading commentator on global politics, and also has a strong record as a historian with a unique focus on Russia, Ukraine and Eastern Europe. Her book is direct and shockingly critical. Coming from Ms. Applebaum, her message is even more urgent.

Many of us think about autocracies such as in Russia or China. But there are many others too: Turkey, Singapore, India, the Philippines, Hungary, Venezuela and Brazil, just to mention a few.

Russia, under Putin, launched a full-scale war against Ukraine on February 24^th, 2022. He not only hoped to acquire territory, but also to show the world that the old rules of international behavior no longer held true, i.e., that the principle of respecting nations’ stated borders, as stated in the UN Charter, could be set aside. As we know, Putin had expected a “quick win”. This was however, clearly based on a major miscalculation. As we shall see later, many dictators tend to surround themselves with what we might label “yes people”, including leaders of their armed forces who may provide too rosy pictures of their military strengths. This seems to have been the case here, too!

Interestingly, other key autocrats, such as President Xi Jinping of China and Alexander Lukoshenko of Belarus, came with strong support to Russia. Others such as India’s Modi and Brazil’s Lula da Silva were also there. Most disturbingly, direct military support to Russia was given by North Korea’s Kim Jong Un and Iran’s Khamenei. Iran exported thousands of lethal drones to Russia. North Korea supplied troops, ammunition, and missiles. India and China significantly supported the Russian war machine by buying Russian oil.

In the book’s first chapter, the author discusses how dictators’ personal greed seems to be a major driving force. Putin naturally comes to mind here. And it is interesting that the sale of natural gas to western Europe primarily coming from the huge gas fields in western Siberia, discovered as late as in 1967, seems to have added significantly to Russia’s and Putin’s wealth! The idea of economic change through trade gained traction – in Russia as well as in Western Europe, particularly in Germany.

There were anti-Putin demonstrations in Russia (2011), huge street protests in Caracas a few years later, significant protests as late as 2022 in China, all to no avail. The autocrats were on firm ground! Demonstrations on the streets did not appear effective!

Now back to Putin. While he was clearly committed to creating wealth through trade, he remained nostalgic when it came to the large physical dimensions of the former Soviet Union. He described Soviet collapse as a “geopolitical disaster”. This sits at the core of his many expansions: Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, eastern Ukraine, … But most likely, none of this physical expansion drive may have happened without Western economic cooperation.

Kleptocracy, a strong commitment to stealing, is the next major dimension characterizing autocrats. Chávez and his successor, Maduro, in Venezuela are good examples of the nepotism and corruption that goes with this. Intricate systems of foreign currency manipulation are typically also involved. Interestingly, there seems to be a warm relationship between Turkey’s Erdogen and Venezeula’s Maduro.

To control the narrative is another central feature of many autocracies. China comes to mind here, in particular, with the implementation of an advanced system for electronic surveillance of its people. But most often, autocracies also have strong systems of control over their inhabitants.

Propaganda typically supports this. Another factor for controlling influence from the outside is foreign companies’ investments. In China, for instance, there are severe restrictions on foreign companies, set forth through China’s so-called “Firewall” policies. Even prominent firms, such as Google, had to withdraw from China. Was there perhaps too much of a threat when it came to research on AI? Firms such as Intel, while initially heavily in China, quickly found their products “copied”. Chinese-made products represented no threat!

To change the operating system also appears central, particularly when it comes to redefining human rights. Here both China as well as Russia look to be leading. But there are many other examples (Iran!).

To smear the democratic side seems essential. Works by the American political scientist, Eugene Sharp, seem to have a particularly threatening impact on dictators. Sharp predicts that over time, all autocracies will become history. People who live in such countries will overcome their fears and “rise up”. In the shorter term, autocracies underwrite propaganda that creates confusion, to counterbalance protests (which, as said, generally do not work). Smear campaigns though are probably more effective, also when directed towards domestic nationals, such as the priest Evan Mawarire in Zimbabwe.

Applebaum underscores that autocrats tend to see the world as one, keeping track of one another’s defeats and victories, timing their own moves to create maximum chaos. We, on the other hand, tend to compartmentalize our approach for, say, The Middle East, South-East Asia, Eastern Europe, and so on.

Coming now to the conclusion, the author’s provides four recommendations for reigning in autocracies:

-               Put an end to transnational kleptocracy: This means that stealing should be eliminated, through full transparency, closing and loopholes, disallowing anonymity. Clearly extensive coordination among many countries will be needed. Not only this, but can greedy national entities (banks, hedge funds, …) be brought in line?

-               Undermine the Information War: What this implies for western democracies is that laws, rules and regulations should be changed, so that transparency replaces obscurity. But are our politicians prepared to do this? Often, short-term political interests get in the way!

-               Decouple, de-risk, rebuild: Europeans may have learned the hard way that extensive oil and gas trading with Russia is risky, and needs to be decoupled, primarily due to political risks (blackmail, …). New sources of energy supplies need to be rebuilt (Norway, …). We see a similar situation when it comes to exports from China. In general, it could be time to choose new ways regarding surveillance technology, AI, voice/face recognition systems, and so on.

-               Democrats united: Nations are neither isolationist, nor solely motivated by a struggle for power. The Ukrainian war showed us that nations are not pieces in a game of risk. Cooperation is indeed needed, to stand up against autocracies, such as Russia. To withdraw from such cooperation, i.e., to swing towards isolationism, will only serve autocracies in the way they hope.

This is a great book. As the former British governor of Hong Kong, Chris Patten, said “[this book] should be compulsory reading for every G7 head of government and foreign minister[s]…”. But this book is not only for policy makers, but useful as well to business executives and individuals – i.e., for you and me! The issues discussed in this book, how to better understand autocracies and how to try to limit their spread, are critical for all of us.